1. Ka'Deem Carey: Carey is the best running back in the nation, hands down. He possesses the three most important traits that all of the greats have: burst, vision, and durability. If you'd like to check out any game film of his that demonstrates Carey's rushing prowess, take a look at the Oregon game film. he carried the ball 48 times en route to a 206 yard and 4 TD performance to upset the #5 team in the country. The average of 4.3 ypc during that game may seem pedestrian in the day of explosive running backs in college football; however, Carey brought the fight on every single carry. Towards the end of the game, when it seemed as though the most valuable player of a decent Arizona Wildcat's team should have been resting on the bench, Carey bullied Oregon defenders who were ready to say goodbye to any hope of winning the PAC 12. I understand that Ka'Deem will not be found at the top of many lists for collegiate running backs due to a lack of west coast coverage; however, his career at Arizona is chock full of marquee moments. He has been Mr. Consistency, rushing for 100+ yards in his past 16 games and rushing over 100+ yards in 22 of 25 games these past two seasons. Has he missed a game due to injury? Not yet (knock on wood). If he indeed does declare for the NFL draft, his last season at Arizona was a quality one as he was the reason for most of their wins, finishing with 1885 yards, 19 TDs, and an excellent rushing performance in the Advocare V100 Bowl at Independence Stadium with 169 yards and 2 TDs over Boston College and their Doak Walker winner in Andre Williams. I think he should be the first running back drafted and when NFL GMs watch his game film, he will be the first, taken early in the draft. A late 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick seems to be fair for the Arizona record breaker who can be a durable, consistent workhorse in the NFL.
2. Bishop Sankey: Being the second best running back is good enough to be the second best running back in the nation. That is how strong the PAC 12 is. Sankey, who has already declared for the NFL draft, was actually considered the better PAC 12 running back by many during the early stages of the season by both educated and uneducated fans. Smarter fans mentioned that he had a greater knack for the home run play than Carey while some east coast analysts and lesser watched fans took to the stat sheet to say that Sankey was the better running back. Now that both Sankey and Carey's seasons are over, Ka'Deem has eclipsed Sankey while playing one fewer game. However, 1870 yards is nothing to scoff at, and I hope NFL scouts will watch Sankey's game film against some of the better defenses. He has lacked consistency, with a terrible 22 yard rushing performance against Arizona State, but he also demonstrated a level of vision and explosiveness similar to Carey's against great defenses in Stanford and BYU. I expect Sankey to be drafted in the 3rd round and if he is taken by a team with a solid O-line, he is going to enjoy his fair share of success at the next level.
3. Carlos Hyde: Hyde is an absolute beast. When I watched him play this season, he reminded me a lot about Chris "Beanie" Wells, a former 1st round Buckeye. I think when all is said and done, he will be a much better running back than Beanie Wells was in the NFL (not that that says much). Through 10 games, he has rushed for 1408 yards this season with 7.7 ypc. That rushing stat line is made even more impressive when you realize that Hyde is not a lil fellow who likes to take the ball on the edge to run. No, he is a bruiser in a stout 6'0", 242 lbs build. He also has excellent balance and speed for a big man, which has given him a knack for finding the end zone. Just take a look at his #SCtop10 run against the Iowa Hawkeyes. I have never seen a big man with as much body control as he displays in that play. Having Braxton Miller as his QB serves as a nice distraction as teams focus on stopping the QB running game as well as Hyde's own; however, you could very well make the argument that Hyde could have more yardage if his team relied on him more. All in all, I think he is strong and durable enough to become a solid running back in the NFL. I expect him to be drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round. Whoever drafts him will have to take some time to clear up his troubled background, but I think he has greatly matured this season.
4. Tre Mason: Mason is a big play running back. He's extremely explosive and produces with the big play. However, I wouldn't take him over the other two RBs in front of him because I think many of his yards can be credited to the scheme that Auburn runs. With a dangerous running QB in Nick Marshall in Gus Malzahn's clever and sneaky offense, a lot of attention is drawn away from Mason on each individual play. With 128 attempts for 848 yards, more than half of his 1621 yards on 283 attempts came when the game's margin was 15+ points, meaning that Mason runs wild when the game is not close. Putting up as many yards as he has in the SEC is impressive, but it's not as impressive when you take the yardage you should be able to take on the ground against lesser teams such as Western Carolina and Florida Atlantic. It'll be very interesting to see how he'll run against Florida State's defense on January 6th. If he can earn big play yardage against Florida Sate, he would prove his explosiveness against a top defense and cement himself a title as an explosive pro prospect. As it is now, I expect him to be drafted in the 2nd round, but used as a third down back in his first season.
5. Andre Williams: People on the east coast may trash me for putting the Boston College product, but I am by no means biased against him. After all, I almost went to Boston College High School. I have a great respect for the university, it's football program, it's head coach Steve Addazio, and it's MVP Andre Williams. However, if you take away his rushing performances against NM State, Maryland, and NC State, all of which possess a mediocre defense, then Williams wouldn't have enjoyed the 897 yard spurt to his 2177 yard total that really catapulted the hype he received late in the regular season. With a hot streak entering a regular season finale against Syracuse, Williams was stonewalled and injured by the Orange defense. With time to get healthy after receiving his Doak Walker Award, Williams was stoned again by a sub-par Arizona Wildcats' defense in the Advocare V100 Bowl to end his collegiate career. I think I speak for many when I say college football appreciated Andre Williams' senior campaign. His story is an excellent one meant for the story books as he has demonstrated determination in his rise on BC's depth chart and on the field as a physical running back. I think he will enjoy some success in the NFL as a short-yardage running back, taken in the 3rd round.
1. Jameis Winston: The Heisman Trophy winner rightfully took home the hardware this past season after an outstanding freshman campaign. Even though he has been spoiled by outstanding talent all around, you could sense something was special about this kid ever since his 25/27, 356 yard and 4 touchdown performance against the Pitt Panthers in Florida State's first game of the season. Putting all of the negative attention Winston has garnered aside, he has performed effectively in all of his games, blocking all of the negative attention. Given Florida State's offense, Winston figures to make a smooth transition into most pro schemes. I expect him to declare for the draft at the end of next season and I think he will be drafted early in the 1st round.
2. Teddy Bridgewater: I've been high on this kid ever since his freshman season because I think he has all the tools to succeed as a quarterback. He is deadly accurate and athletic; however, he also demonstrates a drive and will to win. Just look at last year's Sugar Bowl. Louisville has not faced many challenges this season and the team could not execute late in their lone loss to an upstart UCF team. However, Bridgewater has consistently demonstrated his knack for football and his smart decision making. I personally think that he was too highly touted at the beginning of the season because the media covered him as if he was the lone bright spot for a very solid Louisville team. Give him credit for maintaining a workmanlike approach to football and not making a stint on the social scene. Teddy is a smart, humble quarterback who showed tremendous upside this season, especially in his last two games against Cincinnati and Miami (FL). He refused to be tackled before converting a key 3rd-and-long late against the Bearcats and he was superb against Miami, leaving the Hurricanes scratching their heads and wondering what could have been if Bridgewater had been their signal caller instead of Stephen Morris. I expect him to be drafted early in the 1st round.
3. Johnny Manziel: Manziel has always attracted attention, both positive and negative. After winning the Heisman Trophy last year, everyone wanted to see how he would develop. Sophomore slump? Nope. Maturation as a passer? You betcha. Manziel and Texas A&M have not enjoyed the success they experienced last season, but Manziel has become a much better passer. We all knew he could scramble, improvise and throw on the run, but this season, he has been able to sit in the pocket and make all sorts of throws. College football's public enemy #1 can come off as arrogant, but he is a competitor nonetheless. Just look at his last game of the season, a comeback 52-48 win over Duke in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. He has benefited by throwing to Mike Evans, a quality NFL prospect, so given the team Manziel is drafted by, he could enjoy similar success with a good receiving corp. My bet is that he will land on a team that has talent, but just missed out on the playoffs since I think he will go in the middle of the 1st round. Any NFL team that picks him up will be sure to straighten out his behavior off the field.
4. Marcus Mariota: Even though Oregon did not win the PAC 12 in a year that may be considered disappointing by some in Eugene, Mariota has demonstrated that he has the natural tools to succeed in college football as one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks we have seen in a while. He has a good pocket presence and makes good reads and throws. He is also deadly fast. His decision to stay at Oregon for another year is a good one because I think that he needs time to develop more facets to his game, or else he won't be able to adjust to the NFL with just speed and a knowledge of the zone read offense. I think he draws comparisons to Colin Kaepernick due to similar build and a similar style of play. However, when Kaepernick came out of Nevada running the pistol offense, he wasn't ready for the NFL. His throwing motion was raw, and it still is to an extent, and he managed an college-style offense. I expect a team to take Mariota very early in the 1st round in next year's draft, but that team would be wise to develop his football IQ for professional offenses and defenses by sitting him for a years.
5. Derek Carr: Everyone was thinking, "Not another overrated Carr" when Fresno State and its signal caller gained national recognition. The thing is, the younger Carr is better than his brother and has proved it over his senior season. It's been a long time coming for Carr to prove his mettle as he is one of the few highly touted senior quarterbacks in college football; however, he has grown with Fresno State. His teammates have gotten better and he returned the favor this past season by slinging the ball for 5082 yards and 50 TDs with 8 INTs. He has the physical tools to perform;
however, my concern is how he will manage NFL defenses since they are much,
much better than anything he has seen in the Mountain West. His performance is
the Las Vegas Bowl was not a red flag, per se, but it did show that he needs
developing. That is why I think he will be drafted late in the 1st round by a
team that has a solution at quarterback, but would like to develop Carr for
seasons to come.
Congratulations to the University of Louisville Cardinals Men's Basketball Team for winning the 2013 NCAA Div. I Men's Basketball Championship. Watching this tournament was a treat and watching this finals match-up of the Michigan Wolverines and Louisville Cardinals was a pleasure. Both teams deserved to be in this spot and both teams were a part of a special championship game. Louisville won this game, but let me tell you, Michigan did not help themselves. Earlier this month, I saw a graphic of the Final Four coaches. Boeheim and Pitino are obviously solid; however, the coach that had the most concerning credentials was John Beilein. The team that he has is extremely talented, but extremely young. He is the one that needed to be the "X-factor", but the key decisions that he made during the final did not help his team out. The NCAA Player of the Year, Trey Burke of Michigan, was taken out of the game early by Beilein after he picked up his 2nd foul. Burke's absence was the reason Louisville was able to come back from a double-digit deficit and change the course of the game. A player like Spike Albrecht could only do so much for the Wolverines during his little shooting spurt, but experience counts on these national stages. Michigan could have won the game, but the sports gods smiled upon Pitino and his Cardinals. They wouldn't be stopped and they Won for Ware. Great game. Well deserved title to the Louisville Cardinals.
If you have seen my blog before, you'll probably sense that I am not very fond of Arizona State University. Leaving that aside, I do know quite a bit about the university since I am a former Arizonan. From my sense, people never had a whole lot of beef against ASU other than the fact that they have the highest undergrad population in the country, have consistently been named one of the best party schools, have the highest rate of STDs in a college campus, have a plethora of California chicks and bros that decided to attend their safety-safety school, have an alarmingly high number of alums that went on to be pornstars, and have a Devil as a mascot. In this post, I want to zoom in on their mascot Sparky.
A Brief History of Sparky the Sun Devil
Sparky in 1970
Sparky in 2011
ASU's mascot wasn't always a fiendish, pitchfork-wielding imp. Arizona's Second University was initially called Tempe Normal School and their mascot was the Normals. Soon, they became a state school and toggled through a bulldog then owl mascot. After a while, an ASU alum that was fired from Disney was given the task of creating a new mascot for the school. He then sent ASU a devilish caricature of Walt Disney, which has since become the image of ASU and has been named Sparky the Sun Devil.
Sparky in 1965
Over the years, Sparky has gone through quite a few changes; however, the constant has always been the Sun Devil logo
Sparky the Sun Devil (circa 2013)
This new look is unnecessary. It is tasteless, scary, and designed by Disney (pretty ironic). A classic case of "If it ain't broke, don't break it" in the sports world. The old Sparky had almost a stuffed animal charm about him, but now, it seems as though I am looking into the eyes of Lucifer himself. The mascot was intended to be more "child-friendly", but it looks more like a child's worst nightmare. Before, it seemed as though the devil-mascot debate has always been a silly argument, but now, this mascot gives it a devilish twist. At least it's Sunday so I can go pray.
How many points is home-court advantage. Putting a number on this stat is extremely difficult so let me begin by stating how home court yields an advantage. When a team plays at home, they have both the fans and refs by their side. As much as people will deny that the fans influence the referees, no human being will willingly make 15,000+ fans hate their guts whenever they call a foul or blow their whistle. As a result, the referees are more likely to call fewer fouls against the home team and more against the home team. The fans will then attempt to distract the opposing free-throw shooters and offense in order to make an impact on the game.
In this post, I will be looking at the more consistent teams with a high average home attendance in order to formulate an average of how many points home-court advantage yields based on home-and-away conference match ups.
Now let me explain the process of this calculation before I give you a number. So let me show you the equation:
Home Margin—Away Margin= Difference
Difference/2= Home-Court Advantage
In order to make this number as accurate as possible, I took scores from schools that are renowned for having a daunting home-court advantage like Gonzaga, Kentucky, Florida, Arizona, Duke, UCLA, etc. I then sampled from 106 games in which the team played home and away against the same opponent to formulate this number: (drumroll please)
4.8679 points from Home-Court Advantage
This pretty much explains why the teams that I have listed have won some thrillers this year when they played at home. By using this stat, maybe we can project the scores of any neutral-site, regular-season rematches during March Madness
Is it possible that playing at home can negatively impact the home team? I'd like to say no, but I can't help but think yes. In college basketball, most any team can give another a scare and this season, most any team can pull off an upset. All AP top 10 teams have been upset at least once, most of which have come on the road; however, playing in front of the home crowd does not give a team that is picked to win the extra push necessary. Any basketball coach will tell you that it is difficult to win on the road and that they put in more preparation for road games. What a coach won't tell you is that the team will not focus as much for a game that has "already been decided". Oftentimes you will see a team not play as hard as they should and then receive a scare from lower competition. Other times, you may observe a team that is trying to impress the home crowd by playing a more stylish brand of basketball with no-look passes or alley oops. Sometimes, it doesn't work out and the away team will capitalize. Judging from the Arizona Wildcats men's basketball team today and other home games at the McKale Center, they haven't played the brand of basketball that they would like. Instead, there was a crowd watching their every move, just waiting to explode. That will oftentimes get you mixed results if the other team came to play. Either you will have a closely contested game that goes back and forth seeing the home team as the eventual winner, or you will see the away team come bursting out of the gates to quickly silence the home crowd and grind out a road win. Today, as the Wildcats played the Cal Golden Bears, there was no sense of urgency, especially at the start of the 2nd half, by the home team. Before fans could return from concessions to their seats, Cal had come bursting out of the gates to grab a 10-point lead. The crowd was stunned and the team never recovered as the Golden Bears pranced away with a 77-69 win over the 7th ranked Arizona Wildcats. With tickets had to come by in Tucson for these basketball games, each fan is waiting for a Mark Lyons trey, a Solo fade away, or a Nick Johnson alley oop that they see so often on TV. The players know what the fans want to see and every now and then, you catch them not prepared or trying to impress. In a season like this one, you cannot afford to do that.
I'd like to apologize for my lack of posts over the past several months. Since the summer of last year, I have moved from Tucson, Arizona to Pullman, Washington. There hasn't been much to cover here in the Palouse other than WSU's disappointing 2012 football campaign as well as an extremely mediocre season from the basketball squad. Things down south in Tucson have looked quite good as the Arizona Wildcats football team finished 8-5 with a ridiculous victory against Nevada to conclude their season with the New Mexico Bowl trophy. The men's basketball team has also been performing well with a consistent ranking in the AP top 10. The Toronto Blue Jays and Arizona Diamondbacks have both been very active in the offseason, with the Blue Jays drastically improving their roster with many acquisitions. However, the D-backs have made changes that don't seem to make the team a bona-fide contender in the NL West. The Arizona Cardinals started off their 2012 campaign with a surprising and encouraging 4-0 starts, only to finish the season 5-11, which led to the dismissal of Coach Ken Whisenhunt. The Phoenix Suns have become a doormat of the Western conference and the NHL lockout began and ended. Plenty of sports news is still to come and I will attempt to post more frequently. You can also follow me on twitter @thefanaddict
1. Ka'Deem Carey: Carey is the best running back in the nation, hands down. He possesses the three most important traits that all of the greats have: burst, vision, and durability. If you'd like to check out any game film of his that demonstrates Carey's rushing prowess, take a look at the Oregon game film. he carried the ball 48 times en route to a 206 yard and 4 TD performance to upset the #5 team in the country. The average of 4.3 ypc during that game may seem pedestrian in the day of explosive running backs in college football; however, Carey brought the fight on every single carry. Towards the end of the game, when it seemed as though the most valuable player of a decent Arizona Wildcat's team should have been resting on the bench, Carey bullied Oregon defenders who were ready to say goodbye to any hope of winning the PAC 12. I understand that Ka'Deem will not be found at the top of many lists for collegiate running backs due to a lack of west coast coverage; however, his career at Arizona is chock full of marquee moments. He has been Mr. Consistency, rushing for 100+ yards in his past 16 games and rushing over 100+ yards in 22 of 25 games these past two seasons. Has he missed a game due to injury? Not yet (knock on wood). If he indeed does declare for the NFL draft, his last season at Arizona was a quality one as he was the reason for most of their wins, finishing with 1885 yards, 19 TDs, and an excellent rushing performance in the Advocare V100 Bowl at Independence Stadium with 169 yards and 2 TDs over Boston College and their Doak Walker winner in Andre Williams. I think he should be the first running back drafted and when NFL GMs watch his game film, he will be the first, taken early in the draft. A late 1st round pick or a 2nd round pick seems to be fair for the Arizona record breaker who can be a durable, consistent workhorse in the NFL.
2. Bishop Sankey: Being the second best running back is good enough to be the second best running back in the nation. That is how strong the PAC 12 is. Sankey, who has already declared for the NFL draft, was actually considered the better PAC 12 running back by many during the early stages of the season by both educated and uneducated fans. Smarter fans mentioned that he had a greater knack for the home run play than Carey while some east coast analysts and lesser watched fans took to the stat sheet to say that Sankey was the better running back. Now that both Sankey and Carey's seasons are over, Ka'Deem has eclipsed Sankey while playing one fewer game. However, 1870 yards is nothing to scoff at, and I hope NFL scouts will watch Sankey's game film against some of the better defenses. He has lacked consistency, with a terrible 22 yard rushing performance against Arizona State, but he also demonstrated a level of vision and explosiveness similar to Carey's against great defenses in Stanford and BYU. I expect Sankey to be drafted in the 3rd round and if he is taken by a team with a solid O-line, he is going to enjoy his fair share of success at the next level.
4. Tre Mason: Mason is a big play running back. He's extremely explosive and produces with the big play. However, I wouldn't take him over the other two RBs in front of him because I think many of his yards can be credited to the scheme that Auburn runs. With a dangerous running QB in Nick Marshall in Gus Malzahn's clever and sneaky offense, a lot of attention is drawn away from Mason on each individual play. With 128 attempts for 848 yards, more than half of his 1621 yards on 283 attempts came when the game's margin was 15+ points, meaning that Mason runs wild when the game is not close. Putting up as many yards as he has in the SEC is impressive, but it's not as impressive when you take the yardage you should be able to take on the ground against lesser teams such as Western Carolina and Florida Atlantic. It'll be very interesting to see how he'll run against Florida State's defense on January 6th. If he can earn big play yardage against Florida Sate, he would prove his explosiveness against a top defense and cement himself a title as an explosive pro prospect. As it is now, I expect him to be drafted in the 2nd round, but used as a third down back in his first season.
5. Andre Williams: People on the east coast may trash me for putting the Boston College product, but I am by no means biased against him. After all, I almost went to Boston College High School. I have a great respect for the university, it's football program, it's head coach Steve Addazio, and it's MVP Andre Williams. However, if you take away his rushing performances against NM State, Maryland, and NC State, all of which possess a mediocre defense, then Williams wouldn't have enjoyed the 897 yard spurt to his 2177 yard total that really catapulted the hype he received late in the regular season. With a hot streak entering a regular season finale against Syracuse, Williams was stonewalled and injured by the Orange defense. With time to get healthy after receiving his Doak Walker Award, Williams was stoned again by a sub-par Arizona Wildcats' defense in the Advocare V100 Bowl to end his collegiate career. I think I speak for many when I say college football appreciated Andre Williams' senior campaign. His story is an excellent one meant for the story books as he has demonstrated determination in his rise on BC's depth chart and on the field as a physical running back. I think he will enjoy some success in the NFL as a short-yardage running back, taken in the 3rd round.
